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Trump vs. Clinton – US Election 2016

 

Election in the US.

Hillary or Trump? Democratic or Republican? Who will win? It is hard to see the future, but now we try to predict the result of the election in 2016 USA.
We collected many data from opened databases, and we created a dataset. It is available for everyone, so you can download it, and analyze. We hope you can find interesting facts and correlations, so please let us know if you find something. We share it with you because it is always hard to find the source of the studies,analysis or charts used in articles. We hope we help you a bit and make your life easier. So share the science and share the data!

You can download the dataset from here:  us_president_and_election_data_from_1916

Hillary Clinton was born on a weekend, and Donald Trump was born on a weekday…

Why is it important? Have you ever thought about what is the day type of the candidate’s birthday date?
Weekend or weekday?day-of-birth-rate

Above you can see the Distribution of day type of birthday dates. The rate is 1/4 which is different than the expected 2/7 rate (weekend/weekday).  But what about the winners? Does it matter which type of day were they born? Yes it does.

Chance of winning of presidents were born on weekdays (Monday-Friday)

winner-rate-weekday

Chance of winning of presidents were born on weekends (Saturday, Sunday)

winner-rate-weekend

Bad news for Hillary…

So as you can see, according to our dataset, if the candidate was born on a weekday, there is 47.8% chance to win. If the candidate was born on weekend… just 20% to win. So candidates who were born on a weekday have way more chance to win the election.

But let’s A/B test it: https://www.answerminer.com/calculators/ab-test/7LsJBxrT/which-case-is-better
According to the A/B test we can say:

“The experienced difference is enormous. It’s very likely that Weekday is somewhat better than Weekend. It’s likely that the real difference is over 57%.”

We know we can’t predict the result of the election with this data, but it is interesting to analyze the data and discover hidden relations and correlation

How else can we predict the winner?

Let’s check data of the states.

In which state the candidate should get the majority of the votes to win the whole election? According to the dataset we built a decision tree. Right now we can’t share pictures of our tree, but if you are interested about the Full Application, just sign up for the newsletter and we will inform you when it will be published. It is coming soon !

So the chance to win is 40.98%. It means in 25 rows was a winner which is correct, because there were 25 presidents from 1916 (included 1916). Now keep digging. As we calculated, if the candidate gets more than 47.85% in New Mexico, he/she would have 88,89% to win the election. Moreover, if the candidate gets more than 47.85% in New Mexico and more than 50.3% (win) in Nevada it is 100% that he/she will win the election. This calculation is based only on historical data, but who knows.

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Comments:
  • Bablofil
    May 3, 2017 at 5:51 am

    Thanks, great article.

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